Laurence Tubiana, Jairam Ramesh and Pete Ogden will explain how to read the outcome of COP21 in an exclusive webcast from 10-12 BST Thursday, 15 October
(Pic: Joe de Sousa/Flickr)
By Ed King
“We are seeing a clear picture of what countries want in Paris,” said Janos Pasztor, the UN secretary general’s climate envoy, at a press call on Wednesday.
Clear as mud, many may have retorted. UN officials have to be optimistic about the process and its potential outcomes. That’s their job.
With six weeks until the start of the Paris climate summit, where a global deal is set to be agreed, it’s not evident what it will look like.
Nearly 150 countries, covering nearly 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions, have now released plans outlining how they could contribute to a global deal.
The carbon cuts on offer would reduce the pace of warming say scientists, but are not enough on their own to avoid breaching the 2C danger zone. That’s one headache.
Questions persist over how legally binding it will be, whether regular reviews to boost these emission cuts will take place, and who will pay to help poor countries cope with change?
LIVE WEBCAST: Judging success in Paris. Starts 10am-12 BST, Thursday 15 October
A final set of talks on a draft deal start this coming Monday in Bonn, Germany. Five days to polish off a pact that could set the economic agenda up to 2100.
On current evidence, the Paris deal will likely be ambiguous, politically sufficient and supportive of low carbon growth, but lacking a mechanism to police and enforce change.
Critics are already lining up to say an agreement as proposed won’t work.
Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and other fossil fuel majors appear to believe avoiding 2C is unrealistic, given their long term projections for oil, gas and coal use up to 2030 and beyond.
This week, four eminent scientists argued the focus instead should be on a global carbon price rather than a complex Paris pact.
Top line-up
To cut through the smog, tomorrow Climate Home, the E3G think tank and consultancy PwC will host a conference in London to explore what success in Paris looks like.
We have invited France’s top climate diplomat Laurence Tubiana, India’s former environment minister Jairam Ramesh and ex-White House climate adviser Pete Ogden to offer their thoughts.
Does France believe the negotiations are on track? How can India balance carbon cuts and development? What type of legal framework could the US sign up to?
We’ll also hear from business.
Rowan Douglas, head of capital, science and policy at Willis Insurers will join PwC partner Celine Herweijer to discuss what the private sector wants in Paris, and the potential risks of inaction.
A webcast will be live on Climate Home’s front page from 10am BST. You can also take part using the twitter hashtag #Paris2015.
I hope you can join us. I can’t promise the outcomes from Paris will be clearer, but this event will offer some useful markers on how to rate any agreement.