The leaders of the US, China, India and France are among the many heads of state and government who have yet to confirm they will attend the opening of the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in three weeks’ time.
In a document posted online, the United Nations lists 106 leaders registered to speak at the Baku conference on November 12-13, including those of Brazil, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and Russia.
While the speakers’ list is not yet closed, the number asking for a slot this year is fewer than the 137 who had done so by a similar deadline before COP28 in Dubai last year. In the end, more than 150 heads of state and government were at COP28.
COP29 is expected to be lower-profile than COP28, with about half as many delegates attending, including fewer business leaders.
Andreas Sieber, 350.org’s associate director of policy and campaigns, told Climate Home that, while less than last year, the number of world leaders wanting to participate will likely be “still many more than just a couple of years ago including many major economies”.
Aside from the landmark 2015 COP in Paris, he said, attracting more than 100 of them to a summit “would still be considered unthinkable just a few years ago”. This, he added, shows that “climate has clearly gathered profile and geopolitical importance”.
COP climate summits consist of two weeks of negotiation between governments over policies that shape global and national efforts to cut emissions and adapt to more extreme weather and rising seas. World leaders traditionally show up during the first two or three days to promote their record on climate change, make new promises and call for more action from other countries.
Domestic distractions
The reasons leaders may not have signed up so far this year vary – and none from large and powerful countries have publicly said they will not be at COP29.
The US is distracted by its presidential election on November 5 and China’s President Xi Jinping has rarely left his country since the COVID pandemic, while French politicians have openly criticised Azerbaijan’s human rights record and its conduct in its war with Armenia.
The result of the US election, taking place a week before COP29 opens, is expected to be close – and could therefore be disputed. In the last election, votes were being counted for weeks.
Whoever wins, Joe Biden will still be US president and Kamala Harris vice-president when COP29 happens as the new administration – led by Harris or Donald Trump – will not take power until January 2025.
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France’s President Emmanuel Macron has not said publicly if he will attend COP29. But the relationship between France and COP29 host nation Azerbaijan is tense, due to Paris’s support for Azerbaijan’s neighbour and rival Armenia, its criticism of Azerbaijan’s human rights record and Azerbaijan’s support for anti-French protests in the Pacific territory of New Caledonia.
Other notable absentees from the list include India’s Narendra Modi, Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. Modi and Ramaphosa both spoke at COP28, as did Subianto’s predecessor Joko Widodo.
For the third year in a row, Australia’s prime minister Anthony Albanese is not expected to attend COP despite Australia’s hopes to be chosen at COP29 as the host of COP31 in two years’ time.
China’s President Xi Jinping has not attended a COP summit in person since Paris in 2015. Xi recorded a video message for COP26 in 2021 and, last year, vice-premier Ding Xuexiang addressed the summit on his behalf.
(Reporting by Joe Lo; editing by Megan Rowling)